MAJOR TRENDS & EMERGING RISKS RADAR 2017
IMPACT
potential impact for scor
ORBITS
LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURENCE IN THE NEXT 10 YEARS
Evolving Health Trends
Forecasting the future of health care and health policy is challenging, since diseases and health trends affecting the population are continuously evolving. Numerous breakthroughs in science and discoveries of new technologies will change the landscape of medicine, bringing new threats but also possibilities of better treatments. Health trends include the increased frequency of chronic diseases, obesity, medication overuse, improved treatments and the uncertainty surrounding new products.
—————Deterioration of the environment
Addressing the consequences of environmental degradation is of one of the major challenges currently facing mankind. Issues of increasing urgency include species extinction, ocean acidification, declining land availability and issues related to the global water supply. This trend encompasses environmental pollution, biodiversity loss, resource depletion and the alternative energy landscape.
—————Global Climate Change
The Earth’s climate is becoming more unpredictable. There is consensus within the scientific community that the change in climate can be attributed directly or indirectly to human activities. Global climate change encompasses global warming, extreme weather events, sea level rise, climate-induced poverty and migration.
—————Hyperconnectivity
Hyperconnectivity stems from the rise in the cyber dependency of people, things (e.g. satellites, drones) and organisations. Hyperconnectivity covers many topics such as the rise of social media, wearables and other health-monitoring devices and the increased vulnerability of individuals, and organisations to potential cyber attacks.
—————Emerging Technologies
Innovative technologies disrupt industrial development, production and entire business value chains. An increase in scale is necessary to address the needs of mass production and consumption. Research and development into technological advances that allow novel ways of creating and capturing value are increasingly important in manufacturing industries. The 4th industrial revolution includes breakthroughs in fields as varied as automation, autonomous mobility, artificial intelligence, augmented reality, robotics, new materials, energy use, “Big Data”, life cycle management, and communication.
—————New Business & Finance Models
For years, the world of finance has been undergoing radical changes. Traditional banking was the first sector under pressure, with the insurance industry now in the forefront of this revolution, as the boundaries between various stakeholders are blurring, aided by technological advances. Blockchain technology will lead to fundamental shifts in business models and the creation of new payment solutions. Business models are moving from closed systems to crowdsourcing, open innovation and open source platforms.
—————Shifting Social & Geopolitical Landscapes
Significant trends with the potential to generate social and geopolitical instabilities are the increasing wealth gap within societies, the weakening of international governance and the increase of regulatory and economic uncertainty. Terrorism remains a major threat.
—————Changing Demographics
The planet’s population is undergoing major demographic shifts, which may trigger political, economic, social, cultural and environmental upheavals, particularly in Asia and Africa. This trend encompasses not only population growth, but also the increase in the ageing population, rapid urbanization with the development of mega cities and involuntary mass migration.